Uncertainty is high. Inflation is spiking, supply chains are unreliable, and COVID keeps hanging around.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to make inflation and supply chain reliability worse.
Amidst this backdrop, today’s guest, Richard Duncan, discusses prospects for a US recession.
Richard reiterates that the US needs credit growth of at least 2% annually (inflation-adjusted) to avoid a recession.
In a recession, nearly every asset class would be affected.
The wealth-to-income ratio’s importance is discussed.
The Fed has begun hiking interest rates. They soon plan to begin destroying dollars with quantitative tightening.
Richard wrote a new book, The Money Revolution. It includes a history of the Fed, and points out that China is positioned to become more powerful than the US.
But the US can stay in power if it creates tons of money in order to finance infrastructure, green energy, biotech, nanotech, and more innovation.
Richard maintains that capitalism no longer drives the economy. It’s “creditism” and “consumerism”.
I ask Richard about the risk of creating more dollars than production and innovation.
Contrary to seemingly everybody, Richard believes that the Fed is a force for good.
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